BondLib.SystemDynamics.WorldDynamics.World3.Scenario_10

# .BondLib.SystemDynamics.WorldDynamics.World3.Scenario_10

Influencing the future 20 years earlier

## Information

This is Scenario #10 of the WORLD3 model. This scenario starts out with the same assumptions as Scenario #9.

We now want to check what would have happened, had we started controlling our resources 20 years earlier.

References:

1. Meadows, D.H., D.L. Meadows, J. Randers, and W.W. Behrens III (1972), Limits to Growth: A Report for the Club of Rome's Project on the Predicament of Mankind, Universe Books, New York, 205p.
2. Meadows, D.L., W.W. Behrens III, D.M., Meadows, R.F. Naill, J. Randers, and E.K.O. Zahn (1974), Dynamics of Growth in a Finite World, Wright-Allen Press, 637p.
3. Meadows, D.H., D.L. Meadows, and J. Randers (1992), Beyond the Limits, Chelsea Green, 300p.
4. Meadows, D.H., J. Randers, and D.L. Meadows (2004), Limits to Growth: The 30-Year Update, Chelsea Green, 368p.

In order to accomplish this change, we need to reset all of the switching times in the model:

parameter Real t_fcaor_time(unit="yr") = 1982 "Year of capital allocation to resource use efficiency";.

parameter Real t_fert_cont_eff_time(unit="yr") = 1982 "Year of continued fertility change";.

parameter Real t_ind_equil_time(unit="yr") = 1982 "Year of industrial equilibrium";.

parameter Real t_land_life_time(unit="yr") = 1982 "Land life time";.

parameter Real t_policy_year(unit="yr") = 1982 "Year of policy change";.

parameter Real t_zero_pop_grow_time(unit="yr") = 1982 "Time to zero population growth";.

Simulate the model from 1900 until 2500, and display the same variables as in the book Limits to Growth: The 30-Year Update at page 249:

Initially, an earlier reaction would have been beneficial. The population would have never climbed to 8 billion people. The attainable standard of living would have been approximately equal. In the long run, the predicament is the same as with Scenario #9. We are running out of the remaining non-recoverable resources. Yet, the golden age would have lasted a bit longer.

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